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unmanageable That s why corporate nancial statements are consolidated from the statements of divisions, subdivisions, and smaller and smaller organizational units Yet until very recently this could not be easily done with simulations: Their results could not be added up I will explain this property of simulations more precisely in later chapters, but for now let s return to the ladder analogy Consider a rm that has two divisions, each facing its own uncertainties We will model each division as its own ladder, and model the entire rm as the two ladders joined by a wooden plank Now suppose that by shaking either ladder by itself you would predict a 10 percent chance of its falling over A reasonable estimate of the chance of both ladders falling over at once is 10 percent times 10 percent, or 1 percent.

Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 5-1: VB .NET Data Types 5-2: Data Type Changes 5-3: Reference Types and Value Types 5-4: Literal and Identifier Type Characters 5-5: Allowable Type Conversion Ranges 5-6: System.Convert Members 5-7: Parse Members 5-8: System.String Members 5-9: Arithmetic Operators 5-10: Assignment Operators 5-11: Comparison Operators 5-12: Pattern Matching Syntax 5-13: Comparison Operators 5-14: Logical Operation 5-15: Bitwise Operation 5-16: Operator Precedence

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But when the two ladders are connected by the plank, all bets are off Now if either ladder falls, the plank may drag the other ladder down with it Thus, the chance of both falling at once goes from 1 percent to more like 20 percent! To simulate the entire enterprise, you can t simply shake each ladder individually and add up the results Instead you need to assemble both ladders and the plank rst, then shake the whole thing, as shown in Figure 31 But, again, as with the single gargantuan nancial statement spreadsheet, this just isn t practical for a large organization, let alone for a whole industry.

Sarnoff soon became close friends, Young leaning heavily on him for advice in this new field. Together they shaped the course of the company in the direction of commercial distribution of music, news, and entertainment because Sarnoff insisted that this type of public radio would be a far more profitable business than the wireless telegraph business that the company was originally chartered to attend to. By 1929, Sarnoff and Owen Young had moved RCA firmly into home radio sets and network broadcasting. They had already launched the National Broadcasting Company, and with this success behind him in a field that very few people knew anything about, Sarnoff was a giant and was handed the presidency of RCA in 1930. Not until 1933, however, was he relieved of the founding company s oversight and set free to operate RCA as an independent company. A consent decree issued by the Justice Department in lieu of an antitrust action opened the consortium s dominant patent pool to all potential manufacturers of radio products. In this new climate, Sarnoff arranged the purchase of the Victor Talking Machine Company, whose sales of its old and rather crude mechanical phonographs was being depressed by the appearance of the new little radio music boxes that were springing up everywhere. Soon, the world would be buying RCA Victor radio/phonograph sets bearing the famous Nipper trademark and playing the new RCA Victor (78 rpm) records, which had vastly improved electronically processed sounds on them. The phono-

In The Failure of Risk Management: Why It s Broken and How to Fix It (Wiley, 2009), Doug Hubbard notes this problem as follows: [T]he lack of collaboration within rms makes another important step of risk management 5 almost impossible a cooperative initiative to build models of industrial, economics and global risks across organizational boundaries..

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BY ANDREW LEVITCH I rst became familiar with the power of simulation while in the US Navy serving on board the USS Daniel Webster (a ballistic missile submarine) in the early 1980s. We weren t using computer models to run simulations, but did them manually. The scenarios that we simulated included ones like being detected by an enemy submarine, getting the order to re our missiles, and dealing with situations in which the submarine sustained damage from re, ooding, or a host of other possible malfunctions. My exposure to this type of simulation formed the basis for my philosophy in running complex computer simulations. It is not important to get the input variables exactly right. It is important that you understand the relationships between the input variables and that you capture all of the possible relationships when modeling the outputs.

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